Our Days Are Numbered

There will come a time when every human on Earth is dead.

The only questions are when and how.

Nuclear holocaust. If a global thermonuclear war happens, then the resulting clouds of fallout could kill most of those who lived through the blasts. Anyone who manages to avoid that might starve trying to find uncontaminated food supplies. Even if that problem is solved, they might find themselves with no healthy mate, thus preventing the next generation. And if they pass all those hurdles, then their reproductive organs might be damaged enough to prevent viable offspring.

That could happen tomorrow. On the other hand, it could have happened yesterday, or thirty years ago, and it hasn’t yet. There is at least some hope that it won’t happen at all. In any event, there may yet be time for other options.

Global Warming. A few degrees one way or the other won’t kill off humanity, but there’s no real reason it has to stop there. It is at least vaguely possible that the greenhouse effect could feed on itself and become a runaway. For the end result of that, take a look at Venus – surface temperatures averaging over 860° F. It’s going to be hard for anyone to stay alive in temperatures too hot for baking.

This one isn’t real likely – the theory of global warming is fairly well-established, and there’s not much room in it for a runaway greenhouse effect. On the other hand, theory is not a substitute for testing – and this test could have a very high learning curve.

Ice Age Maximus. Current theories in physics indicate that nuclear fusion produces neutrinos. These faster-than-light particles are hard to spot – they’ve got a 50% chance of getting through a light-year thickness of lead. Nonetheless, there are theoretical means of capturing them, and sites constructed to do just that – capture the neutrino’s produced by the Sun’s fusion. Unfortunately, they haven’t found any. This leads to a few possible conclusions, but one is that the nuclear furnace of our nearest star has gone out.

That would mean that all that light and heat we currently enjoy is just the remnants of earlier fusion percolating up through those thousands of miles of compressed gas – and that at any time now, it could stop. If that happens, it’s gonna get chilly. Not just the ice caps expanding and glaciers forming. Not just the oceans freezing over. I’m talking about the atmosphere freezing out, one gas at a time – a layer of dry ice, buried under a blanket of frozen nitrogen, with drifts of oxygen settling out on top. I’m talking about trying to choose between breathing frozen air or breathing vacuum – not that your choice will make a lot of difference.

This is another one that could happen at any time. But again, it hasn’t happened yet.

Various other methods – a massive comet strike could crack the Earth like a coconut. The Sun’s fusion might restart, igniting a massive solar flare that would blast our atmosphere off the surface, frying half the planet instantly while the other half struggled – briefly – with storms that would make a hurricane look like a summer breeze. A bioweapon gone wrong that wipes out such a high percentage of humanity that the few survivors die of other diseases, infrastructure collapses, or simply can’t find each other to reproduce and keep us going. If nothing else, the Sun will eventually expand to a red giant, turning the Earth to a charred cinder similar to Mercury.

There will come a time when every human on Earth is dead.

It would be nice if my descendents lived somewhere else when that happens.

If I Was The President

Sometimes, when I’ve nothing better to do, I daydream about what I would do in various unlikely situations. For example, how would I spend $150 million if I won the lottery? That would be a little more likely if I bought a ticket. Or how would I remodel my house on one of those remodeling shows? I suspect my landlord would not be happy with my plans, though, so maybe I should wait until I own my own house.

After re-reading Tom Clancy’s Executive Orders recently, then watching “Commander in Chief” this week, I started thinking about what I’d do as the President. I can’t really imagine a set of circumstances that would get me there, but sometimes realism isn’t that important in fantasy. Naturally, there’d be a lot I’d like to do politically, but I’ll save that for other blogs. I was thinking more about what I would do for fun in between crises.

For starters, I think I could make the media happy by skipping vacations altogether. After all, I haven’t had a real vacation apart from family visits and day-trips since I got married. When I was in Italy for three years, I didn’t even have family visits! I did spend a week in England, but that was as a Boy Scout Leader for summer camp – not all that relaxing. Of course, I also spent time in at least seven other countries on business trips, but it looks to me like the President gets to do that sort of thing, too. Most of our Presidents have spent a few weeks going “back home,” wherever that might be, such as Crawford, Texas for President Bush. After 18 years in the Army, though, I don’t really have a home I’m desperate to go back to. I figure a weekend at Camp David now and again would be plenty, and during my term of office, my family can come visit me! Maybe the Secret Service can show them around downtown…

There are some other recreation possibilities, though. Kennedy Center is basically the government’s private theatre. I think if the President mentioned he’d like to see a certain group, arrangements could be made. Maybe a Renaissance Faire Music Festival, featuring the Minstrels of Mayhem and the O’Danny Girls? I bet getting tickets isn’t a problem the President would have.

For that matter, it would be the perfect opportunity to meet people. How many of your favorite movie stars, TV stars, musicians, and authors do you think would turn down an invitation to dinner at the White House? I’d like to invite Geena Davis and Martin Sheen to discuss dramatic portrayals of the Presidency, after I’ve done the real thing for a few months. That might be a good excuse to invite Harrison Ford, too, even though Air Force One is not the real reason I’d want to meet him – I’d much rather meet Han Solo and Indiana Jones. The President can’t exactly go down to the pub on a whim, but I could invite Spider Robinson and bring Callahan’s Bar to the White House, metaphorically at least. In fact, I suspect that every living author on my Yahoo 360 Favorites list would get an invitation sooner or later. If only it had happened in time for me to meet Robert Heinlein…

The one meeting I’d most like to set up, though, is a working lunch with Larry Niven, Jerry Pournelle, and the Administrator of NASA. I’m just certain that those two authors have a number of workable suggestions on improving the Space Program, and I’d very much like to hear the Administrator’s response to their ideas. In fact, his response might determine how long he’d stay Administrator…because I just bet Paul Allen would be interested in the job, even if he had to give up his stake in SpaceShipOne.

Yes, I can definitely see some opportunities for fun as the President. All in all, though, I can’t help thinking that it would be more fun to win the lottery.

Apollo Redux

I read this morning about NASA's new plan to get us back on the Moon by 2018. They plan to reuse a lot of the tried-and-true Shuttle hardware, the stuff that never failed, like the solid rocket boosters you see attached to the Shuttle's main external tank. They've also got the ambitious, never-before-tried plan to send one rocket up with the crew package and another rocket up with the engines to take the crew from Earth orbit to the Moon. Most intriguing to me is the plan for each lunar mission to leave components behind, eventually constructing a permanent base that could be manned for up to six months at a time.

It won't be cheap - $104 billion over that 12 years. That averages out to $8.7 billion a year. That's over half of NASA's budget, and a little over a third of what we spend each year on "International Affairs" (source: A Citizen's Guide to the Budget from the Gov't Printing Office). It's also about 2.5% of the Defense budget - not counting supplementary spending for the War in Iraq or other emergency funding.

But it's worth it. As I've mentioned before, I don't really believe that the government will be the source of the next major step in space. This plan, however, at least takes a baby step on the way. The two new goals - multi-launch missions and a permanent base - could lend a major assist to later commercial development.

The base, in particular. The toughest part of any effort in a new location is the initial setup. With even a tiny base in place, later crews would have a place to stay while they begin construction of something more ambitious. That not only applies to later government-funded development, but to private enterprise. NASA does not intend to have the Moonbase permanently manned; instead, they will use it as a temporary base at a permanent location. There's no real reason why they couldn't rent it out to commercial interests during other times, giving a private construction crew a base from which to work while they build a commercial facility "next door". Done properly, a NASA base would end up being the "City Hall" for an eventual Luna City.

Some skeptics are upset by the fact that the plan takes over 12 years from today to effectively repeat what we accomplished back in 1969. I understand their doubt. But we've pulled back from our early Apollo success, and not maintained our capabilities. A former marathon runner who hasn't trained in a year does not immediately go back to running 26 miles. He has to slowly work his way back up to it. So do we. The technology has improved, and we can get back to the Moon more safely, with better capabilities on arrival. But we can't do it today, and we definitely can't move on past the Moon until we get our space program back into shape.

This Space For Rent

I read a couple of news stories today. First, Shuttle Flight Delay. Apparently, Katrina has shut down the company that makes the Shuttle's external fuel tanks. That's understandable, it's a major disaster. The bad part is that even without the hurricane, NASA did not expect the analysis and redesign of the foam insulation on the tanks to be complete earlier than fall of 2006.

That's just too long. The International Space Station really can't keep operating without regular resupply flights, let alone expand into something that can actually be useful. Obviously, the Space Shuttle is no longer reliable enough to do the job, and the U.S. Government is not going to invest the money to replace it any time soon. And if the Space Station closes down, that's pretty much the end of Man in Space - not just for the U.S., but for the whole world.

Then I read another story - New Company Aims to Colonize Mars. That's where the future of space exploration and colonization is, with private companies. Like Scaled Composites, the builders of SpaceShipOne, Four Frontiers sees a chance to make a buck in space. And as we all know, humans, especially Americans, will do pretty much anything to make a buck. As more and more private companies and individuals invest in the commercial possibilities of space, the research will happen, and progress will be made.

It's interesting, in a way. The first major steps towards space were taken in an international game of oneupsmanship, the Cold War. After that, the spirit of exploration and scientific curiousity were barely able to keep the program limping along for 30 years. Now the next "giant steps" are liable to come from human greed. It's not a nice commentary on us, but if that's what it takes to get us out there where we belong, I'm all for it.